ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 252346 SPC MCD 252346 MOZ000-KSZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... VALID 252346Z - 260115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 451...WITH THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA. DISCUSSION...EARLIER STORMS THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NERN KS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF 2330Z ACROSS NRN KS. HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 451...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MOVING INTO CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELL THAT FAVORABLY INTERACTS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FURTHER EAST...THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ERN KS/WRN MO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT CURRENT RADAR/VIS IMAGERY TRENDS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND/OR THE CURRENT CLUSTER ACROSS W-CNTRL KS. ..DEAN.. 07/25/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37729837 37729901 37729923 37729933 37729937 37729955 37839956 38709959 38979958 39069958 39139958 39659793 39659790 39659737 39659523 39659520 39659512 39659512 39459420 39139409 38569405 38479406 38459406 38049508 37749769 37729770 37729777 37729787 37729826 37729837 37729837 NNNN