ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260706 
SPC MCD 260706 
ILZ000-MOZ000-260930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 260706Z - 260930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL AND ERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN MO WITH SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN THE MID 70S F. AS A RESULT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
ANALYZED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN MO WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED IN NERN MO NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL MO GENERALLY SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD
PERSIST. AS A SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER COOPER AND HOWARD
COUNTY CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO
OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE MS RIVER IN FAR NERN MO AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO AN AIRMASS
THAT IS BECOMING LESS UNSTABLE WITH TIME.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39989199 39179277 38579302 38029239 37139185 37349065
            37849022 38799043 39989199 

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