ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261907 
SPC MCD 261907 
SDZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261907Z - 262030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS OF SD. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...A WW ISSUANCE
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST MORE
THAN VERY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STORM IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER
THE BLACK HILLS OF SD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION DUE TO WARM
AIR AT BASE OF EML...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM. STRONG CAP AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT MIGHT LIMIT
INITIATION TO PRIMARILY THE BLACK HILLS REGION...BUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER SWRN SD.
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE. THIS AREA
RESIDES WITHIN BELT OF 30-35 KT WINDS AT 500 MB AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON   43210269 44380333 44790269 44360192 43390129 43210269 

NNNN