ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272144 
SPC MCD 272144 
NDZ000-MTZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 272144Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NEWD FROM WRN SD...NERN
WY...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SAMPLED BY THE 19Z GGW RAOB AND THE 20Z BIS RAOBS. THESE RAOBS
INDICATE MODEST CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM EML...THOUGH COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EROSION OF
THE CAP FOR CONVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY
MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS -- SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
STEEP-TROPOSPHERIC-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ESTABLISHED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE STRONGER
DCVA APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES...THOUGH EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODES WITH MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   47320408 48670573 49010399 48830208 47960053 46330055
            46120259 46330360 47320408 

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