ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041658 SPC MCD 041658 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041658Z - 041900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES LATER TODAY. THUS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM A BROAD/DISORGANIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM STRETCHING FROM WY SEWD TO S-CNTRL NEB. CONVERGENCE ALONG A SWWD-PROGRESSING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WEAK WAA ATOP THIS BOUNDARY /EVIDENCED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE KGLD VWP/ ARE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION. THE 12Z LBF RAOB DEPICTED RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN ANY ELEVATED STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH FURTHER HEATING AND MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF CURRENT CONVECTION...PARCELS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF W/NWLY 500-MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT SUCH THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS IS REALIZED. IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL OFFER SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ..PICCA/HART.. 08/04/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40770273 41520275 41730114 40879975 39609864 38839862 38029895 37850011 37970053 38920166 39900233 40770273 NNNN