ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051140 
SPC MCD 051140 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS/NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

VALID 051140Z - 051315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 50
KT...CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN INTO THE OK COUNTIES IN WW 472 BY 13Z. 
MEANWHILE...TRAINING STRONG STORMS...CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES IN WW 472...COULD
PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.  THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE TRAINING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THIS WATCH AS COMPARED TO COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF WW
472.

DISCUSSION...A RECENT TRACK OF THE LEADING BOW STRUCTURE OF STORMS
/EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD AND ELK COUNTIES KS THROUGH BUTLER AND
SEDGWICK COUNTIES KS/ INDICATED A SLOWING TREND IN THE FORWARD SPEED
AT AROUND 35 KT...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOW HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE STABILITY
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND LIMITING THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF STRONGER WIND SPEED.  MEANWHILE...MRMS CAPPI DATA UP
THROUGH 7 KM INDICATED THE TRAILING STORMS FROM NORTHEAST BARTON AND
ELLSWORTH COUNTIES KS TO SEDGWICK/BUTLER COUNTIES WERE TENDING TO
REMAIN STRONG...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE LATTER THREAT MAY BE
INHIBITED...AS WELL...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STABILITY OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHEAST...GIVEN THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL KS.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA...RESIDUAL
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT THE ONGOING AND NEW STORMS.  STORMS ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST KS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO...WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE LATTER STORMS.

..PETERS.. 08/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36179621 36819741 37529843 38399897 38809894 38949773
            38539726 38269679 38579641 38599598 38299522 37929411
            36489398 36509516 36389587 36179621 

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