ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061851 
SPC MCD 061851 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NERN NEB AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 061851Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL SD INTO NCNTRL NEB AND
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BOTH MULTICELL AND
A FEW SUPERCELL MODES ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SFC
LOW OVER CNTRL SD SWWD INTO NCNTRL NEB. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW INTO NRN SD AND SERN ND. THE WARM SECTOR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL SD...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BAND.
DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL SD
HAS OVERTAKEN THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF VEERING TO SWLY...A
MODEST /35-40 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL/HART.. 08/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   42979932 44319811 45189614 44479559 42729681 42359879
            42979932 

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