ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071901 
SPC MCD 071901 
NMZ000-AZZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071901Z - 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.  A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH DEEP
SHEAR/WIND PROFILES ARE A BIT WEAK FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
PRESENT IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. 
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.

..COOK/DIAL.. 08/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31741230 33211224 35201133 36101017 36080931 33750915
            32910876 32000837 31570833 31360843 31311103 31741230 

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