ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112208 
SPC MCD 112208 
MTZ000-IDZ000-112315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 112208Z - 112315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.  LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER WRN MT HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90
DEG F AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOW IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE. 
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BOI AND TFX
RAOBS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  THE INVERTED-V PROFILES
/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
MICROBURSTS WITH THE LARGER CORES AS THEY DEVELOP NWD INVOF THE
ID/MT BORDER.  THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY OCCASIONALLY YIELD
POCKETS OF HIGHER GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF 50-65 MPH
WINDS.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   45491438 46051547 47431538 47801441 47801320 47061236
            45701256 45491438 

NNNN