ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160413 
SPC MCD 160413 
MNZ000-NDZ000-160515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...

VALID 160413Z - 160515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE STRONG STORM CLUSTER ENTERING NWRN MN MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER NWRN
MN...BUT ANY FUTURE SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
SPARSE...AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CROSSING INTO
NWRN MN AND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ ARE ALSO DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE WARM-ADVECTION REGIME OVER NWRN MN. THE ONGOING AND FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 40 KT SLY LLJ. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /INCLUDING A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/
IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TIME. THOUGH A FEW
INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER
WW.

..DIAL.. 08/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46139774 48789563 48099405 45729532 46139774 

NNNN