ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171906 
SPC MCD 171906 
COZ000-NMZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 171906Z - 172130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAN
JUAN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASIDE...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY AN
EASTWARD-TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WHILE INHIBITION STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS PER
VISIBLE/OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND
ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE BUOYANCY/NEGLIGIBLE CINH BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST ONTO
THE PLAINS. AS MUCH AS 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35530553 35970642 36530636 37620541 38390479 38290349
            36390306 35450362 35300450 35530553 

NNNN