ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171959 
SPC MCD 171959 
KSZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY/FAR
SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 171959Z - 172200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO...WITH OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED /ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF CO/ BY MID-AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE HAIL
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES/STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...GRADUALLY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT/CYCLONIC
WESTERLIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT POTENTIALLY TIED TO INCREASING CONVECTION OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL CO /ROUGHLY 50 MILES WNW OF DENVER/ AS OF 1930Z. SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE
VICINITY/PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR/NORTH OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN INTERSTATES I-70/I-76 NEAR AN
EFFECTIVE FRONT/CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. A DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40+ KT EFFECTIVE AS SUPPORTED BY
KFTG WSR-88D VWP DATA/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...A MOIST AIR MASS /NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PRESENCE
OF A DENVER AREA CYCLONE ARE FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL LIKELY
PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38520422 38970481 40070519 42030498 41950403 41020371
            39830196 38800205 38480320 38520422 

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