ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 182015 SPC MCD 182015 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 182015Z - 182245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT THAT HAS ADVANCED SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM S OF RATON NM TO NEAR AMARILLO TX TO NEAR GAGE OK. FRONTAL ASCENT -- LOCALLY BOLSTERED BY ITS UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE -- MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AN OTHERWISE NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL-MOTION FIELD BASED ON RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. STRONG SFC HEATING/DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ENCOURAGE SUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA -- EVEN EXTENDING TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN A RECYCLED-MOISTURE REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY A SHELTERED PBL WITH LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS -- MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES PROVIDED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM. ISOLATED SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND A SVR WIND GUST MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DEEPER FRONTAL INTRUSION...GIVEN 20-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONTAL SEGMENT AND ITS RELATED EROSION OF DEEPER BUOYANCY PROFILES...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...THE OVERALL SVR RISK MAY REMAIN ISOLATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35929962 35349950 34649957 34300023 34340236 34590351 35290447 35810457 36150444 36440371 35630241 35540144 36040015 35929962 NNNN