ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221753 
SPC MCD 221753 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...ARKANSAS...FAR NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 221753Z - 222000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEAR TOO
LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 1745Z...A DECAYING MCS WAS MOVING ACROSS SERN
OK...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL APPROACHING FSM. WHILE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD...HEATING OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REJUVENATION ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION
TO A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED EWD-MOVING VORT-MAX...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AND VWP DATA FROM FSM/LIT SHOWING 25-35 KTS IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. WEAK LAPSE
RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THREAT...MAKING
WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE THREAT WILL BE
REASSESSED IF ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS STORM STRUCTURES EMERGE OUT OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34859491 35729463 35759372 35799225 35739141 35719098
            35679063 35599035 34769071 33979160 33609244 33279379
            33579472 34309610 34859491 

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