ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 221935 SPC MCD 221935 MNZ000-NDZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 221935Z - 222030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND AND NWRN/N-CNTRL MN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z. DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SEASONABLY STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND IS APPROACHING A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER FAR ERN ND. PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS INHIBITED SFC HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID-UPPER 60S. WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE DEGREE OF DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SEPARATE PRE-SFC-FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTENING/ASCENT WAS ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE...FAVORING INITIAL CLUSTER/DISCRETE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOWING SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN ND...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN ND INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL MN. ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 49049778 49099589 49079448 48219269 46629301 46209387 45919601 45989765 46669771 49049778 NNNN