ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230106 
SPC MCD 230106 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-230230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN HALF OF MN/NORTHERN IA TO WESTERN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 497...498...

VALID 230106Z - 230230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 497...498...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MN/NORTHERN IA
INTO WESTERN WI. TORNADO WATCHES 497/498 CAN CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED
WITH THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI/FAR NORTHEAST MN IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...NEAR/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...MULTIPLE NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA/FAR
WESTERN WI AS OF 8PM CDT/01Z. LARGER-SCALE FORCING AND
DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AID OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WITH 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH AS PER
RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DULUTH/MINNEAPOLIS. 

HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY COOLING OWING TO
PRIOR CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS/BRIEF TORNADO/SMALL HAIL COULD YET OCCUR WITH AN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL OR TWO AND/OR LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS...THE AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS/WEAKNESSES SHOULD KEEP LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42639415 44329351 45499331 47919393 48129264 47479156
            45659115 43939147 42489307 42639415 

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