ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092016 
SPC MCD 092016 
MEZ000-092145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT WED SEP 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 092016Z - 092145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A STEADY INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NRN MAINE WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH RAP-BASED MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION PASSING TO THE NORTH.  

WHILE GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELD MAY PROMOTE SOME DOWNSHEAR PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY
MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND
GRADUALLY STABILIZE.

..MEAD/HART.. 09/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45257089 45617049 46287004 46966931 47286840 47136792
            46526777 45796785 45276830 44816960 44367044 44277071
            44427086 44677095 45257089 

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