ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110122 
SPC MCD 110122 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-110315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110122Z - 110315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/VICINITY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE
00Z DVN RAOB SAMPLED AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AIDED BY THE
INFLUX OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH
AROUND 55 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR. HAIL -- POSSIBLY REACHING
MARGINALLY SVR LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS -- MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THOUGH DEEP ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED ATOP
ONLY MODEST THETA-E IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MITIGATED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41289281 41289108 40438999 39649029 39199111 39469255
            40089323 40779322 41289281 

NNNN