ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110712 
SPC MCD 110712 
OKZ000-110845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110712Z - 110845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM ALONG THE FAR WRN PORTION OF AN OVERALL
DECAYING MCS MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS IT SHIFTS SE TOWARDS
E-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...THE PROCESS OF MERGING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS YIELDED AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THAT PRODUCED MEASURED GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AT
BOTH THE MARSHALL OK-MESONET SITE AND STILLWATER ASOS. THE LIFT FROM
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEARS NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN
REGENERATIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SWLYS ONLY AROUND 20 KT PER TLX VWP DATA. WITH THE LACK OF APPARENT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO THE W OF THIS SEVERE STORM...IT DOES NOT SEEM
LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED. WHILE
THE RISK HAS LIKELY PEAKED...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 09Z TOWARDS SEMINOLE TO OKMULGEE COUNTIES.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36179686 35899618 35729584 35519586 35269601 35179630
            35169659 35269682 35549709 35889722 36179686 

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