ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192010 
SPC MCD 192010 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-192245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY AND FAR NRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 192010Z - 192245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN
OH...WRN PA AND WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE SWWD ACROSS CNTRL OH WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC TEMPS IN ERN OH HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60
TO 65 F RANGE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 500
TO 750 J/KG BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...A  LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. WSR-88
VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPORARY STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG
THE FRONT AND THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY DEVELOP A
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE
GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/HART.. 09/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39998046 39428106 39318164 39538214 40488240 41838049
            42757948 43417856 43617778 43307716 42737715 40917864
            40287999 39998046 

NNNN