ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202016 
SPC MCD 202016 
OKZ000-TXZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 202016Z - 202245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
ERN TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO LOWER
90S F ON THE CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR TO BE STEEP AND ARE APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO RAP DATA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INSTABILITY MAX IN GRAY
COUNTY. THE HRRR GRADUALLY INCREASES THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
STORMS SEWD TO THE VICINITY OF CHILDRESS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
TIMING OF WHEN STORMS WILL MATURE IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT THIS SEWD
MOVEMENT SHOULD HELP THE STORMS MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP HAS ABOUT 35 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR AS DOWNDRAFTS BECOME MATURE.

..BROYLES/HART.. 09/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35969957 35169958 34549993 34160053 34290159 34780185
            35640148 36310093 36369979 35969957 

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