ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290636 
SPC MCD 290636 
FLZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA GULF COAST /SAINT PETERSBURG
TO SARASOTA COUNTY/

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 290636Z - 290900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA /MAINLY FROM SPG SOUTHWARD TO
SARASOTA COUNTY/.

DISCUSSION...TAMPA RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE DISCRETE STORM
CELLS TRACKING TO THE NNE AT 15 KT...AND HAVE REMAINED MORE DISCRETE
AS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH /OFFSHORE OF SAINT
PETERSBURG/.  THESE DISCRETE CELLS ARE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST WITH THIS
BAND EXPECTED TO REACH LAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER 07Z.  UNTIL
THEN...THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WITH TBW VAD DATA INDICATING A
VEERING PROFILE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
STORM ROTATION.  GIVEN THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SPG TO SARASOTA COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE...AND BECOME A TORNADO
AS THEY REACH LAND.  A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER INLAND
SUGGESTS THIS MARGINAL RISK FOR A TORNADO SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 09/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   27648281 27608259 27238244 26988230 26918243 27068256
            27378271 27448275 27648281 

NNNN