ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292014 
SPC MCD 292014 
NMZ000-COZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 292014Z - 292115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS IS POSSIBLE
WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...FUELED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S F AND
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW/TERRAIN FORCING.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ISOLATED CELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE/PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SUGGESTS THAT A WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 09/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   35940641 36370650 36990649 37720639 38190614 38450578
            38580542 38570500 38390445 38020389 37310354 36830348
            36310362 35890392 35640431 35490463 35430517 35490561
            35670608 35820628 35940641 

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