ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202206 
SPC MCD 202206 
TXZ000-NMZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515...

VALID 202206Z - 210000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS
MUCH OF WW 515 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D DATA DEPICT
WEAK ROTATION/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL CELLS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR EPZ NWD TO ABQ. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FOCUS OVER SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH...WHERE CELLS SHOULD ENCOUNTER STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER INSOLATION AT PRESENT/ AND
IMPROVED MOISTURE. THUS...AS THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD IMPULSE SKIRTS
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND PROGRESS NEWD.

REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGEST 35-45 KTS OF 0-6-KM SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR
CONTINUED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A
FEW LARGE HAIL STONES. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN
LACKING SO FAR...ORGANIZING COLD POOLS AND POTENTIAL LINEAR SEGMENTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN WIND
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS CELLS ENCOUNTER IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS SRN/ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX.

..PICCA.. 10/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31760695 32440717 35320680 35550378 35180297 33580313
            31390393 30670471 31170591 31760695 

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