ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241750 
SPC MCD 241750 
TXZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241750Z - 242015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO RISK ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL A COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY
SWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF S TX AND ADJACENT NERN MEXICO...THOUGH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS BEING HINDERED ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES WITHIN
THE CRP /CORPUS CHRISTI/ CWA.  S AND E OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS PERSISTS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONGOING
AS THE REMNANT CENTER OF PATRICIA APPROACHES BRO /BROWNSVILLE TX/.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW /VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG THE TX COAST/ CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE PER VWP DATA...AND EXPECT THIS INCREASE IN SPEED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR THE TX COAST AS THE REMNANT PATRICIA LOW
EMERGES OVER WARM GULF WATERS.  THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION -- WITH SMALL CIRCULATIONS ALREADY NOTED WITHIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTION AND THE BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...WITH AN EYE TOWARD POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GOSS/HART.. 10/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26049831 27559843 28999670 29579469 28979457 27189562
            25759701 26049831 

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