ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241909 
SPC MCD 241909 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI...NE IND...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 241909Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF SE LOWER MI...NE IND AND NW OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL LOWER MI SSWWD INTO NRN IND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. A NARROW
THERMAL AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS NOW NEAR
70 F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH
MESONALYSIS ESTIMATING SBCAPE OF 250 TO 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE FRONT IN CNTRL LOWER MI AND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SSWWD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND NE IND OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...THE DETROIT WSR-88D
VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 45 KT WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE
LINE BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.

..BROYLES/HART.. 10/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   40388446 40848555 41588556 42878469 43548414 43728348
            43568279 43128263 41528272 40738302 40388446 

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