ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310122 
SPC MCD 310122 
TXZ000-310315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 310122Z - 310315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 525. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY AFFECT
AREAS FARTHER N INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX TO
ADJACENT MEXICO INVOF THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING IMPLIED BY
WATER VAPOR LOOPS...ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SWRN-CONUS
TROUGHING. THE PREDOMINANT SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LINKED TO A SUPERCELL
CROSSING PARTS OF KINNEY/EDWARDS COUNTIES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
ADVANCING EWD. HOWEVER...OTHER TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS / SPREADING INTO WW 525...AND ALSO ACROSS AREAS FARTHER
N...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MODIFICATIONS TO
THE 00Z DRT RAOB INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA -- STRONGEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WHERE THE
RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. WITH THIS RAOB ALSO INDICATING A
LONG HODOGRAPH ASSOCIATED WITH AROUND 80 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK
SHEAR...SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH SVR HAIL/WIND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS WW 525 WHERE THE
STRONGEST BUOYANCY EXISTS...THOUGH ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY AFFECT
LOCATIONS FARTHER N GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR.

..COHEN.. 10/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30589887 29259892 28429960 28400015 29110083 29770153
            30470156 31180038 31369922 30589887 

NNNN