ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310617 
SPC MCD 310617 
TXZ000-310715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 310617Z - 310715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST A MODEST SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST TO THE EAST OF
WW 525 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WW MIGHT NOT BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A BOWING SEGMENT WITH ROTATING COMMA
HEAD IS MOVING EWD THROUGH WCNTRL TX AT AROUND 30 KT. LONE SUPERCELL
STORM PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS LINE. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE /1500 J/KG
MLCAPE/ INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IS
RELATIVELY NARROW. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LLJ
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME.
THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO WILL PERSIST MAINLY THROUGH AROUND 08Z...BEYOND WHICH TIME
SEVERE THREAT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN/MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 10/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29939887 30539884 31039885 31009764 30489708 29799710
            29219787 29159919 29939887 

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