ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020728 
SPC MCD 020728 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST MON NOV 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SRN AL AND EXTREME
SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 020728Z - 020930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR
PENSACOLA SWD INTO THE NCNTRL GULF. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS
OFFSHORE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
ROTATION OBSERVED IN A FEW CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM SWRN GA SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE. VWP DATA FROM EGLIN AFB SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND
WEAK SHEAR IN THE 0-2 KM LAYER...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER IS RELATIVELY STRONG /AROUND 40-50 KT/. AT LEAST A MODEST
INCREASE IN THE LLJ IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD AND GLANCES WARM
SECTOR...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE
AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES WILL
EXIST INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE STRONGER CELLS MOVE INLAND.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 11/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30468655 30338717 30388760 30768739 31268645 31338508
            30418553 30468655 

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