ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051320 
SPC MCD 051320 
TXZ000-051545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 051320Z - 051545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...A
TORNADO...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
WHILE THE SEVERE RISK WILL INITIALLY BE MARGINAL/VERY LOCALIZED...A
WATCH ISSUANCE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WELL AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS FAR WEST TX....AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
BEING AIDED BY A 30-40 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS PER
EARLY MORNING WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLY THIS MORNING...A STORM NEAR
THE KERRVILLE/FREDERICKSBURG AREAS HAS SHOWN AT LEAST
MODEST/TEMPORARY INDICATIONS OF CYCLONIC SHEAR AS OF 7 AM CDT/13Z.
WHILE NEAR-SURFACE INHIBITION PERSISTS IN MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING NOTED IN 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO/FORT WORTH/CORPUS CHRISTI...MODEST DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WARMING WILL ERODE INHIBITION THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE. AN
OBSERVED VEER-BACK-VEER /WITH HEIGHT/ WIND PROFILE...AS PER REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS/WSR-88D VWP DATA...WOULD SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF
SEMI-DISCRETE/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29870002 31469966 31349706 29899729 29459858 29870002 

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