ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051350 
SPC MCD 051350 
OKZ000-TXZ000-051545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051350Z - 051545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ARRIVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INITIALLY COOL/SEMI-STABLE...MODEST WARMING AND STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS PER THE 12Z
NORMAN SOUNDING/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. SOME HAIL /MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE/ MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER
BANDS/CLUSTERS COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES INTO LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34699925 35719793 35359710 33329786 33479954 34699925 

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