ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052132 
SPC MCD 052132 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...WRN AR INTO SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 052132Z - 052300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO...MAY BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 531 BY 00-02Z.

DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CONTINUES ACCELERATING
NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...AN
ASSOCIATED 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK IS IN THE
PROCESS OF NOSING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND MOISTENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION TO MAINTAIN VIGOR OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION STILL
EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. 
ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 00-02Z.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33249626 35169478 36309443 36779389 36809235 34919231
            33569357 32749534 33249626 

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