ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120041 
SPC MCD 120041 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-120245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...NW LA...S-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120041Z - 120245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF TSTMS
MOVES EWD INTO THE REGION BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
FROM ADF /IN CNTRL AR/ SWWD TO JUST W OF EDC /IN CNTRL TX/. TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED ALONG AND/OR JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE
WARM AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J PER KG. RECENT 00Z SHV
SOUNDING SAMPLED MLCAPE AROUND 700 J PER KG. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WELL. 

BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...TSTMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN
STRONG UPDRAFTS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF AN UNDERCUTTING
BOUNDARY...NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WARM AIR
ALOFT /AROUND 700 MB BASED ON THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING/. THE TREND OF
TRANSIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING DECREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...DESPITE STRONG KINEMATIC
FIELDS...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 11/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31829502 33179334 33499276 33439228 32969223 31989286
            31209383 30679546 31239594 31829502 

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