ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 162356 SPC MCD 162356 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537... VALID 162356Z - 170130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. EVENTUALLY...ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 537...BUT IT MAY STILL BE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY-LINE TYPE STRUCTURE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS ITS EASTWARD SURGE...THE STORM MODE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...THAN EAST...IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THROUGH 01-03Z...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 50-60+ KT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED GRADUAL MOISTENING IN LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAY OFFSET STABILIZATION TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY IN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES IN STRONGEST STORMS. ..KERR.. 11/16/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34300214 37340086 37650021 37259919 35439965 34040043 33170134 33310142 33450205 34300214 NNNN