ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170419 
SPC MCD 170419 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW/CNTRL TX AND WRN OK INTO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540...

VALID 170419Z - 170545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 540 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS FAR EAST AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 09Z.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING BROKEN SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NEAR OR
JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.  INTENSITY TRENDS AS ACTIVITY
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06-09Z REMAIN A
BIT UNCLEAR.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT FURTHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS.  AT THE VERY
LEAST...INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET.  

DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE EVOLUTION OF MESOVORTICES ACCOMPANIED BY THE
RISK FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE ALSO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED
RIVER.

..KERR.. 11/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31800088 33000018 33879946 34919920 35799933 36529940
            38199857 38699808 38179710 34659741 33289745 32389823
            31500006 31800088 

NNNN