ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171935 
SPC MCD 171935 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AR...NW MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 546...

VALID 171935Z - 172130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 546 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 546 IN CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD AFFECT NW MS AND WRN TN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR LITTLE
ROCK EXTENDING SWD INTO NW LA...ALONG WHICH A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN AR...NW MS
AND WRN TN...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AHEAD OF THE LINE...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 65 KT WITH VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. ROTATING CELLS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A TORNADO THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35769276 34429253 33719239 33519155 33309003 34308906
            35388884 35988899 36218951 36269069 36259193 36039249
            35769276 

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