ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172119 
SPC MCD 172119 
MOZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-172315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172119Z - 172315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW DAMAGING WING GUSTS MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND FAR
NE AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM SCNTRL MO
EXTENDING SWD INTO NE AR...ALONG WHICH A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN SE MO
AND FAR NE AR ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO 65 F RANGE BUT INSTABILITY
IS QUITE WEAK. IN SPITE OF THIS...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE IN
PLACE WHICH MAY RESULT IN ORGANIZATION ALONG THE STRONGER PARTS OF
THE LINE. THE ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 65 KT OF SLY FLOW AT 1 TO 2 KM AND A 0-1 KM
SHEAR NEAR 45 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
CELL THAT CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION ALONG THE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW
ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37389253 36799208 35969193 35799112 36248966 37258939
            37979050 38059147 37819227 37389253 

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