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Mesoscale Discussion 1991
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MD 1991 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 211436Z - 211930Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CROSSING PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. PRECEDING ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT AND DCVA CONTINUE TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SRN
   WI TO SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH
   CONTINUES ITS ENEWD PROGRESSION...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
   EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DEEP SUBFREEZING AIR IS
   ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA -- SAMPLED BY THE 12Z
   DTX RAOB AND INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   SNOW...WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA IN CONCERT WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS
   ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SFC OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS
   NRN IL...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA...INDICATE HEAVY SNOW
   ONGOING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD AS PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY
   INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY REACH SERN LOWER MI
   AND NWRN OH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- PRIMARILY AFTER 20Z.

   ..COHEN.. 11/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41478751 43018479 43348281 42688264 41778377 41188510
               40988680 41478751 

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