ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131317 
SPC MCD 131317 
TXZ000-131445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 131317Z - 131445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/WEAK TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP NEAR
GALVESTON BAY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  LIMITED SPATIAL
COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FEW WEAK
ROTATIONAL COUPLETS S OF GALVESTON ISLAND MOVING NNEWD AND ARE
EXTRAPOLATED TO REACH THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WHILE THIS
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING LARGELY IN THE ABSENCE OF DETECTED
LIGHTNING...THE VERY STRONG AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SHALLOW SUPERCELL WOULD BE A LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE AND WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
UNDERCUTS THE STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/13/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   28989509 29569493 29869469 29949442 29679435 28959483
            28989509 

NNNN