ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231213 
SPC MCD 231213 
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231213Z - 231415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE OVER THE AREA PRIOR TO 14Z.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE MOVING
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ATTM...ONE FROM
NEAR THE SAINT LOUIS METRO TO NEAR FARMINGTON...AND ANOTHER FARTHER
WEST FROM NEAR TBN TO NEAR 25 NE RUE.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 250 J/KG
MLCAPE/ ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA....WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER /APPROACHING 500 J/KG MUCAPE/ IN SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR
/CHARACTERIZED BY 250-400 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH VALUES AT AREA PROFILERS
AT LZK...LSX...AND MEG...SUGGEST A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND
OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH QLCS-TYPE CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE
NEAR-TERM.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS ROTATION IN A COUPLE OF
AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE NEAR VAN BUREN AND
SEARCY COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS.

WITH TIME...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSOLATION
WILL FOSTER GRADUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY...WHILE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM /CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS/
CONCURRENTLY MATURES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.  GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY...A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT BEFORE 14Z.

..COOK/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   35978968 35909051 36189114 36509127 36579159 36549229
            36649247 36749250 37479224 38219175 38709110 38919061
            38988996 38848912 38428851 37898825 37458817 36828846
            36238898 35978968 

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