ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231541 
SPC MCD 231541 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NWRN IND...SERN WI...SRN LM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 231541Z - 231745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL IL WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CHI AREA.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINE/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LIVINGSTON/MCLEAN/FORD COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST IL.  THESE STORMS ARE
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 45-50 KNOTS...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE CHICAGO REGION AROUND 11AM.  STORMS HAVE SHOWN SUBTLE
SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME SCANS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...MODIFIED FOR EXISTING SURFACE
CONDITIONS...SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH A
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER INHIBITING SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS REACHING THE
GROUND.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AOB 50 KNOTS AS LOW AS 1KM AGL
MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.  GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES...A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...

LAT...LON   40858875 41528874 42528832 43278775 42588727 41438726
            40238759 40168820 40858875 

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