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Mesoscale Discussion 2036
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231658Z - 231900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
   RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
   SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
   TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING
   MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.  SO FAR...DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA.  MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
   THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH
   TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN
   MAINTAIN INTENSITY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33429258 35319119 36348909 35748805 34068865 32489177
               33429258 

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