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Mesoscale Discussion 2039
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN IA...ERN MO...AND WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231842Z - 232045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL
   MO AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA MOVES
   NEWD WITH TIME. BANDED CU HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS CNTRL MO AHEAD
   OF A COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VWPS FROM AREA RADARS SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED
   LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM
   40-70 KT ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 250
   M2/S2. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR THAT COULD PRELUDE A MORE ROBUST
   SEVERE THREAT IS THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH
   MLCAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 250 J/KG AS OF 18Z. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
   NWD TRANSPORT OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING
   BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500-750 J/KG BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH VERY
   STRONG SHEAR SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
   20-21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
   LATEST NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST. DEPENDING ON
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40669285 41219258 41539164 41599067 41538942 40168911
               38119020 37149100 37139162 39839271 40669285 

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