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Mesoscale Discussion 2040
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN LA...WRN MS...WEST TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

   VALID 231848Z - 231945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
   BREAKING UP ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S.  DEWPOINTS ALSO CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW OVER 1000 J/KG AS FAR NORTH AS
   SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHERN MS.  LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND MESOANALYSIS
   DATA SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...WITH
   EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 M2/S2 ON MEG VAD.

   IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   BREAK THE MINIMAL CAP AND RESULT IN ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN
   THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  A FEW CELLS
   EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN AR HAVE ALSO SHOWN
   INCREASING SUPERCELLULAR TENDENCIES.  PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR STRONG TORNADOES WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAN BE
   MAINTAINED.

   ..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35319156 36069006 36098891 35498866 33448995 32559121
               33249313 35319156 

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