ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231933 
SPC MCD 231933 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231933Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL.  THIS REGION IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPERS 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN INCREASING TRENDS
DURING THE PAST HOUR...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION NOTED.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WHETHER THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST DESPITE WEAK
FORCING/ORGANIZING MECHANISMS.  IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A
WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32998645 31958646 31358828 30469115 31539092 33068832
            32998645 

NNNN