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Mesoscale Discussion 2045
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

   VALID 232049Z - 232215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH -
   WEST OF MEM.  SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED
   PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO
   BASEBALL SIZE/.  LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL
   ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO
   RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED.  THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW
   LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH
   VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S
   INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK
   OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

   A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF
   THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.  THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
   NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL.

   ..HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36418972 35289093 33029160 32909089 34978736 36658683
               36678844 36418972 

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