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Mesoscale Discussion 2047
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 232226Z - 232330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR
   MIDDLE TN AND PARTS OF NRN AL.

   DISCUSSION...AN UPSTREAM BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN TN AND
   NRN MS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   THESE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED AN INCREASING TREND IN
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. MODEST MOISTENING FROM THE S WILL CONTINUE TO
   OCCUR AS THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD. THIS...ALONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH
   VALUES RANGING FROM 300-600 M2/S2 RECENTLY OBSERVED PER HTX AND OHX
   VWP DATA...SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
   EWD...REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH BY 23Z.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36588460 34978540 34278612 33938659 33938745 34218805
               35148804 36658784 36588460 

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