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Mesoscale Discussion 2052
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND NWRN AL...CNTRL/NRN MS...A SMALL PART
   OF WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240141Z - 240345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL/NRN MS AND AL. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TORNADO RISK
   REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO WATCH 559 AND/OR
   A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF AN EXTENSIVE LINE OVER NRN MS...AND
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORMING ALONG A CONFLUENCE LINE INTO CNTRL MS. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS THE
   INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS FIXED ACROSS CNTRL MS.
   THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TORNADO RISK POSSIBLE. VWP DERIVED HODOGRAPHS
   CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT VERY STRONG 0-3 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 700
   M2/S2. SOME WEAKENING IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z AS
   THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT N/E...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST LONG
   ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO
   WATCH 559 AND/OR A NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS INTO
   W-CNTRL AL...AND A SMALL PART OF WRN TN.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34358766 33938669 33408643 32618716 32418899 32949011
               33459035 34029027 34488984 34938927 35458850 35508810
               35488803 34998814 34388812 34358766 

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