ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 252228 
SPC MCD 252228 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS...WRN AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 252228Z - 260100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE FROM ERN LA ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN LA ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO MIDDLE TN.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON THE NRN EDGE OF A THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THE MOIST AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE BIRMINGHAM WSR-88D VWP HAS MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 KT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 300 TO 350 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
STORM ROTATION AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD
AREA. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THAT CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 12/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33948689 33798638 33418614 32818651 32108778 31638880
            30859105 30719195 30949240 31349226 31829145 32338973
            33208879 33708791 33948689 

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