ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261029 
SPC MCD 261029 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261029Z - 261300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND WRN TN. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE THIS
MORNING NEWD ACROSS ERN AR COINCIDENT WITH A NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO CREATE LIFT AND
IS SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS LURKING NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WITH AREA VWPS SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE BOOTHEEL
OF MO INTO WRN TN.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 12/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34688993 34159097 34089140 34279176 35219135 36059028
            36388922 36088867 35648835 35228876 34688993 

NNNN